The key tool real estate agents have used for decades to determine accurate home prices no longer works in Omaha, according to one of Nebraska’s highest-producing agents. The result is a market where even seasoned professionals admit they are operating with significant uncertainty.
Nicki Headen, a realtor with eXp Realty and one of the state’s leading agents by sales volume, says the problem is clear: “It’s a lot harder for a lot of us agents to figure out pricing on homes, because what may have been a comp back in 2024 to price a home, that doesn’t really matter, because the market’s changed so much.”
Headen argues this is more than typical market fluctuation. She describes a breakdown in the comparable sales approach that underpins residential real estate valuation, creating an environment in which pricing is now largely guesswork, regardless of experience.
Why Comparable Sales No Longer Work
Headen details how historical comparables have become unreliable. “I might have a house down the street that sold for, let’s say, four hundred thousand,” she explains. “I want to price this one at four hundred, but that one sold at four hundred back in 2024, so now this same house might only be worth three hundred seventy-five thousand because the market’s slowed.”
This $25,000 pricing gap can mean the difference between a quick sale and a listing sitting for months with repeated price cuts. Headen says this is becoming the norm as market conditions change faster than the data agents’ use can keep up with.
Comparable sales data always lags behind the market. By the time a sale closes, is recorded, and appears as a comp, the conditions that produced that price may have shifted. In a stable market, this lag is manageable. In today’s market, Headen says, comps are nearly useless as predictive tools.
A Sideways Market With No Predictable Outcome
Headen describes the current environment as “a very sideways market. We don’t really know what to expect until we list it and we see the traffic coming.”
This situation is neither a clear buyer’s nor a seller’s market. Instead, outcomes have become highly unpredictable. “It’s very hit or miss,” she says, noting that some homes sell immediately while others, even with similar features and pricing, linger on the market.
This unpredictability extends beyond time on the market. Headen says even the most active agents are struggling to read the situation. “Even those of us who sell a ton of real estate don’t know exactly what’s going on right now with the market, because it’s very different,” she says.
Headen’s comments indicate the uncertainty stems from a breakdown in the data and pricing methods the industry has relied on, not from individual agent performance.
Longer Timelines and Market Stigma
The failure of comparables to reflect current value has direct consequences for how long homes take to sell. Properties priced using outdated comps often sit on the market longer, accumulate stigma from extended days on market, and require multiple price reductions before selling.
“We’ve had some listings put it on the market, it may take three months by the time you get offers, and then another month to close,” Headen says. This drawn-out process contrasts with correctly priced listings, which can go under contract in a matter of days.
Agents cannot predict which outcome any given listing will face. “We don’t really know what to expect until we list it and we see the traffic coming,” she repeats. Market testing, rather than data analysis, has become the primary method for determining the right price.
How Agents Are Responding
Headen’s solution is what she calls radical transparency with sellers. Instead of projecting certainty about pricing based on comps, she explains the limitations of available data and prepares clients for possible adjustments.
“I never want to overpromise somebody,” Headen says. “If somebody came to me and said, Hey, I will hire you if you can sell my house in thirty days, I would unfortunately decline that and say I would love to help you. I cannot promise you that. So anybody who promises you that I don’t know that I would trust it.”
This is a significant departure from the traditional listing presentation, where agents typically express confidence based on market analysis. According to Headen, that confidence is not justified in the current market, and agents who offer guarantees are either uninformed or misleading clients.
An Industry-Wide Challenge
Headen’s observations suggest this issue extends beyond Omaha or inexperienced agents. If top producers acknowledge that standard valuation methods no longer work, the broader industry faces a challenge in adapting to rapid market changes.
The comparable sales approach has been the backbone of residential real estate valuation for decades because it performs well in most conditions. If that reliability is lost, the industry will need new pricing strategies to keep up with faster-moving markets and shorter data lags.
Whether new tools or methodologies will emerge to solve this problem remains to be seen. For now, Headen says, both agents and sellers are navigating a level of uncertainty that even the most experienced professionals have never faced.
With traditional pricing models faltering, Omaha’s real estate market reflects a broader reality: agents must rely on real-time feedback and open communication, not just historical data, to guide their clients through an unpredictable landscape.
